Coherence, progression, and pathways in NCEA Mathematics and Statistics: Participation and achievement data analysed by school deciles, 2013-2019

Mathematics education plays an important role in social justice and equity. Access for all students to a coherent mathematics education that supports progression and pathways to future learning is crucial for reducing inequities in education. The National Certificate of Education Achievement [NCEA] was introduced to recognise a wider range of achievement and decrease inequity in educational outcomes. However, concerns have been raised that it has not achieved these goals. The overall goals of this study were, first, to develop an understanding of which NCEA achievement standards support progression and future pathways in Mathematics and Statistics; second, to analyse by school decile (which acts as a proxy for the socio-economic status of the communities that schools draw from) the patterns of participation and achievement in these NCEA standards between the implementation of these New Zealand Curriculum [NZC] aligned standards in 2013 until 2019. This is predominantly a quantitative research methods study with an initial qualitative component which established the evaluative framework of key standards for progression and future pathways used for the quantitative analysis. The research finds that there has been a decline in participation in many of the key standards in Mathematics and Statistics from 2013-2019, raising concerns about equity of opportunities and whether students are best prepared for progression and future pathways. Analysis by school decile confirms concerns about inequities for low socio-economic students. This study’s findings have implications for students’ progression and future pathways and for policy and professional development for teachers as the NCEA Change Package is implemented over the next few years.