AG
Climate change impact on Aflatoxin B1 in maize and Aflatoxin M1 in milk
Published on by Anand Gavai
Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production
chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each
other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1
production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow’s
milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input
data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on
maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed – as part of
dairy cows’ compound feed – to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate
models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were
used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations
suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean AfM1 in milk by 2030, except for
one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. All calculations suggest a stable, with
a slight increase (up to 0.6%), chance of finding AfM1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05
µg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model
considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models
for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains,
together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This
modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1
in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique
predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated
approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk
managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end
product.
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Funding
All 4 author(s) received funding for this study from the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV) through the KB program KB-33-001-004