Supplementary material from "Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics"
Posted on 2017-12-30 - 06:27
Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator—we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision-makers.
CITE THIS COLLECTION
DataCiteDataCite
3 Biotech3 Biotech
3D Printing in Medicine3D Printing in Medicine
3D Research3D Research
3D-Printed Materials and Systems3D-Printed Materials and Systems
4OR4OR
AAPG BulletinAAPG Bulletin
AAPS OpenAAPS Open
AAPS PharmSciTechAAPS PharmSciTech
Abhandlungen aus dem Mathematischen Seminar der Universität HamburgAbhandlungen aus dem Mathematischen Seminar der Universität Hamburg
ABI Technik (German)ABI Technik (German)
Academic MedicineAcademic Medicine
Academic PediatricsAcademic Pediatrics
Academic PsychiatryAcademic Psychiatry
Academic QuestionsAcademic Questions
Academy of Management DiscoveriesAcademy of Management Discoveries
Academy of Management JournalAcademy of Management Journal
Academy of Management Learning and EducationAcademy of Management Learning and Education
Academy of Management PerspectivesAcademy of Management Perspectives
Academy of Management ProceedingsAcademy of Management Proceedings
Academy of Management ReviewAcademy of Management Review
B. Sherley, Richard; Barham, Barbara J.; Barham, Peter J.; Campbell, Kate J.; J. M. Crawford, Robert; Grigg, Jennifer; et al. (2017). Supplementary material from "Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics". The Royal Society. Collection. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3965409.v1