Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases
Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.
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- Health and Community Services
- Health Care Administration
- Health Counselling
- Health Information Systems (incl. Surveillance)
- Health Promotion
- Preventive Medicine
- Primary Health Care
- Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
- Medicine, Nursing and Health Curriculum and Pedagogy
- Nanotoxicology, Health and Safety
- Mental Health Nursing
- Midwifery
- Nursing not elsewhere classified
- Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health
- Aged Health Care
- Care for Disabled
- Community Child Health
- Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety
- Epidemiology
- Family Care