Under-5 Mortality Rate Estimation by Residence using Bayesian Model (poster for SDSW 2019)

The progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) since 1990 has been remarkable but uneven within countries between urban and rural populations. While trend U5MR estimates have been published frequently, an analysis of U5MR by urban and rural area has not been available across countries over time. In this paper, we provide annual estimates of U5MR among urban residence for 109 countries from 1990 to 2018 using a Bayesian time series model and assess the corresponding uncertainty. The analyses are based on an extensive database complied from surveys (including DHS, MICS, RHS, PAPFAM, PAPCHILD), censuses, and vital registration system. We present results for selected countries and identify country-years with the highest disparities in U5MR between urban area and national level.