Using generalised additive models to visualise the annual cycle of primary feather moult patterns

Moult is a vital but energy-demanding event in a bird's phenological cycle. Primary moult is the shedding of old feathers and the regeneration of new flight feathers to maintain efficient functioning of these critical structures. Life history events, such as moult, breeding and migration, are typically separated from one another temporally because of the costs associated with moult Thus, extrapolation of other life-history events is possible from an understanding of the primary moult schedule in species for which data are easier to collect This study aimed to explore the primary moult patterns of nine nectarivorous species (seven Sunbirds and two Sugarbirds) using data extracted from the South African Bird Ringing Unit (SAFRING) database. Logistic generalised additive models (GAMs) were fitted to active/inactive moult observations to explore annual primary moult patterns. Breeding patterns based on the presence of brood patches in females were also analysed using GAMs for species with sufficient data. The GAMs illustrated the annual patterns well, with the probability of moult having clear peaks and troughs, allowing intuitive understanding of annual life-history patterns, such as the probability of breeding. Generally, GAMs hold potential to be used as a supplementary tool to study the timing of primary moult GAMs appear especially useful for species with no well-defined annual moult period.