<p>The hybrid model of Amsterdam University<br>Press (AUP) combines monograph<br>sales with Open Access publishing. This<br>paper investigates the effects of Open<br>Access publishing on the sales of monographs,<br>taking into account the influence<br>of: commercial potential; frontlist and<br>backlist; and language. The data set contains<br>sales figures of 513 books, spread<br>over 36 months: 2010 to 2012. Over 70 per<br>cent of those books are published on Open<br>Access and are distributed through the<br>OAPEN Library. Each influence is relevant,<br>which makes it harder to single out the<br>effects of Open Access. The large difference<br>between frontlist sales figures and<br>those of the backlist leads to a separate<br>analysis. The frontlist sales are affected<br>by a combination of commercial potential<br>and language; Open Access publishing has<br>no effect in this situation. For the backlist,<br>Open Access publishing is a significant influence<br>on sales only in the subset of books<br>whose print run is between one and 2000.<br>No significant effect on books with a print<br>run of zero, or on books with a print run between<br>2001 and 3000, could be measured.<br>The hybrid model does not lead to more<br>sales of monographs available on Open<br>Access, and the loss of sales is negligible.<br>The data suggest that a hybrid model is not<br>an option to improve the sustainability of<br>monograph publishing.</p>
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