Table A. Values for the mean and sigma values of reporting and FOI used in each location.

The same reporting priors were used across all locations. Table B. Force of infection estimates in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Florida and Guam from 2010 to 2019. Median and 95% Bayesian credible intervals. Table C. Long-term average of force of infection estimates in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Florida and Guam for the 1929–2009 and 2010–2019 time periods. The 2010–2019 period corresponds to the period with data. Fig A. Prior distribution of the reporting hyperprior. Dashed lines represent median prior value, at 10%. Fig B. Age distribution of reported severe and non-severe dengue cases (colored bars) in Puerto Rico from 2010 to 2019. The grey bars represent the age distribution of the population (US census, 2010). Fig C. Yearly age distribution of dengue reported cases in Puerto Rico (A), American Samoa (B), US Virgin Islands (USVI, C), Hawaii (D), Florida (E), and Guam (F). Scales may be adjusted for years with fewer dengue cases reported. Fig D. Yearly age distribution of locally-acquired and imported dengue reported cases in Florida. Scales are adjusted for years with fewer dengue cases reported. Fig E. Violin plots of FOI and reporting probability prior and posterior estimates in Puerto Rico (A), American Samoa (B), the US Virgin Islands (C), Hawaii (D), Florida (E) and Guam (F) from 2010 to 2019. Points represent the median value of each estimate and the dashed lines represent the long term average of FOI and reporting probability estimates. Fig F. Comparison of log likelihood samples by age group and years of models Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary using Puerto Rico data. Models’s log-likelihood values may overlap. The log likelihood value in a model is a measure of goodness of fit. The higher the value (i.e., closer to 0), the better. Fig G. Heatmap comparison between models Primary, Primary and Secondary, and Secondary of log likelihood median samples and cases by age group and years using Puerto Rico data. The log likelihood value in a model is a measure of goodness of fit. Here, models with log likelihood values closest to 0 were plotted. Fig H. Reported cases model fit (all cases and severe cases only) by age group in Puerto Rico from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig I. Reported cases model fit to model fitted to all dengue (A) and severe cases (B) by age group in Puerto Rico from 2010 to 2019. Points represent dengue (A) and severe cases (B) reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig J. Reported cases model fit by age group in American Samoa from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig K. Reported cases model fit by age group in US Virgin Islands from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig L. Reported cases model fit by age group in Hawaii from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig M. Reported cases model fit by age group in Florida from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig N. Reported cases model fit by age group in Guam from 2010 to 2019. Points represent cases reported to ArboNET while lines represent model fit to Primary, Primary & Secondary, and Secondary models. Shaded areas represent the best model 95% CrI. Fig O. Alpha parameter posterior estimates with 95% CrI (vertical bars) in Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico severe (using severe cases only), American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Florida and Guam.

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