Short-term impacts of Universal Basic Income on population mental health inequalities in the UK: A microsimulation modelling study.

Table A: Key model assumptions of UKMOD and SimPaths. Table B: Effect estimates for use in Step 2 of SimPaths causal mental health module. Table C: All individual benefits retained and/or suspended in each UBI scenario. Table D: Alternative effect estimates for use in Step 2 of SimPaths causal mental health module during sensitivity analyses. Figure A: Internal validation graphs from the SimPaths GUI contrasting predicted outcomes with observed Understanding Society data from 2011–2017 (yo = years old). Figure B: Cumulative mean prevalence of common mental disorder and poverty by number of model iteratio. Figure C: Prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) in SimPaths versus the Health Survey for England from 2012–2018. Table E: Population-level economic impacts of Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies modelled in UKMOD. Figure D: Gainers and losers by household income decile (before housing costs) ranging from low to high, with Partial UBI compared with baseline tax/benefit policies in 2023 (Scenario 2). Figure E: Gainers and losers by household income decile (before housing costs) ranging from low to high, with Full UBI compared with baseline tax/benefit policies in 2023 (Scenario 3). Table F: Median income, prevalence of poverty, employment rate, and mean hours worked in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Table G: Estimated prevalence of common mental disorders (CMD) and mental health inequalities in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Figure G: Estimated relative (left panel) and slope (right panel) indices of inequality by education for common mental disorder (CMD) in modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Table H: Estimated prevalence of common mental disorders (%) in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 stratified by gender, education, age, and household structure (95% uncertainty intervals. Table I: Structural Sensitivity Analyses—Median income, prevalence of poverty, employment rate, and mean hours worked in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Figure I: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 1, relaxing employment assumptions—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) for modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Figure J: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 2, using economic inactivity effects—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) for modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Table J: Structural Sensitivity Analyses—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorders and mental health inequalities in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Figure K: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 1, relaxing employment assumptions—Estimated relative (left panel) and slope (right panel) indices of inequality by education for common mental disorder (CMD) in modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Figure L: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 2, using economic inactivity effects—Estimated relative (left panel) and slope (right panel) indices of inequality by education for common mental disorder (CMD) in modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Figure M: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 1, relaxing employment assumptions—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) for modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022 to 2026 with 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by gender (A), education (B), age (C), and household structure (D). Note different scales used for each stratification. Figure N: Structural Sensitivity Analysis 2, using economic inactivity effects—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) for modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022 to 2026 stratified by gender (A), education (B), age (C), and household structure (D). Note different scales used for each stratification. Table K: Structural Sensitivity Analyses—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorders in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 stratified by gender, education, age, previous poverty/employment status, and household structure (95% uncertainty intervals). Table L: Analytical Sensitivity Analyses—Median income, prevalence of poverty, and prevalence of unemployment in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Figure O: Analytical Sensitivity Analysis, using alternative estimates from systematic reviews—Estimated prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD) for modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Table M: Analytical Sensitivity Analyses—Prevalence of common mental disorders and mental health inequalities in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Figure P: Analytical Sensitivity Analysis, using alternative estimates from systematic reviews—Estimated relative (left panel) and slope (right panel) indices of inequality by education for common mental disorder (CMD) in modelled Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies from 2022–2026. Table N: Estimated GHQ Likert score in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 (95% uncertainty intervals). Table O: Estimated GHQ Likert score in baseline scenario and three simulated Universal Basic Income (UBI) scenarios from 2022–2026 stratified by gender, education, age, previous poverty/employment status, and household structure (95% uncertainty intervals).

(PDF)