Greece, an early analysis of the provisional results of 2021 census

The recently communicated provisional results of the 2021 census in Greece confirm the expected population decline during the last decade which was marked by three separate crises: the economic, the "refugee" and the epidemiological. This decrease (-384 thousand or -3.55%) is lower than expected (-485 thousand) by an estimation based on the natural and migratory balance. At the same time, drawing solid conclusions based on the temporary data at lower than national levels requires special attention as the coverage error probably differs from the respective 2011 value. The rates of population change in NUTS 2 and 3 levels are affected by this factor (as well as by the differentiated percentage in the last two censuses of people declaring a municipality of permanent residence different from the real one). Thus, while the basic trends in the large NUTS 2 and 3 units cannot probably be disputed, the same is not necessarily true for small Prefectures and especially for Municipalities, as results from the analysis of their growth rates, while taking into account the natural balance.