posted on 2022-01-25, 21:13authored byHuiling Song, Chang Wang, Burak Sen, Gang Liu
The potential constraints of critical
material supply for the global
green transition have raised increasing concerns in recent years.
As an important “green minor metal”, gallium faces such
a potential supply risk for two reasons: it is a byproduct of aluminum
production, and the forthcoming end of primary aluminum production
boom in China, currently the main global aluminum producer, may bring
substantial impacts on the global gallium supply. Here, we investigated
this byproduct and host metal linkage using a system dynamics based
integrated model and characterized the gallium–aluminum dynamics
in a green transition up to 2050 across five world regions (i.e.,
China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the rest
of the world). Our results reveal varying patterns of gallium demand
and supply in different world regions and the significant role of
“the China factor” in ensuring a sustainable gallium
supply globally. However, the concerns on the gallium supply risk
in China for a common green future could be relieved from the coordination
of mitigation strategies from both supply (primary and secondary)
and demand (e.g., process efficiency improvement and material intensity
reduction) sides among all world regions. Our methodological integration
of system dynamics, industrial ecology, and economic geology can be
extended to other materials.