Summary of the scenarios explored.

Key assumptions relating to the level of transmission, the timing of vaccine dose delivery, the vaccine product delivered, and the level of immune escape, are illustrated for each category. Category 1 represents high-income settings with historically high levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, Category 2 represents lower-middle-income settings with historically high levels of transmission, and Category 3 represents high-income settings with initially lower levels of transmission. Additional assumptions are summarised in Table D and E in S1 Text. SARS-CoV-2, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2; VFR, variant fold reduction.