Statistical analysis of vote shifts from Kılıçdaroğlu to Erdoğan from the first to the second round.

(A) The vote shares for Erdoğan and Oğan in the first round are strongly correlated with Erdoğan’s vote share in the second round, although there are some outliers. (B) A histogram of these vote shifts shows that these outliers typically favour Erdoğan in the sense that large shifts from anti to pro Erdoğan are much more common than the other way around. (C) Looking at the proportion of ballot boxes coming from districts with two or fewer ballot boxes as a function of vote shifts, we see that these extreme vote shifts favouring Erdoğan occur predominantly in districts with fewer ballot boxes.