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Relationship between R and the proportion of detected infections among traced contacts.

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posted on 2021-04-30, 17:45 authored by Kyra H. Grantz, Elizabeth C. Lee, Lucy D’Agostino McGowan, Kyu Han Lee, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Emily S. Gurley, Justin Lessler

Each position along a line shows a single test-trace-isolate strategy, with a fixed delay from case symptom onset to isolation (shown in the numbers at the top) and 90% of contacts quarantined on the same day as case isolation. Points are colored by the proportion of infections detected and isolated through testing. When isolation timing remains constant, higher case isolation completeness corresponds with increases in the proportion of detected infections among traced contacts and reductions in R (Arrow 1). However, increases in the proportion of detected infections among traced contacts could indicate an increase in R, if the delay to case isolation is also increasing, thus leading to more secondary cases among traced contacts (Arrow 2).

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