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Predicted under various transmission-cohort scenarios.

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posted on 2021-05-20, 17:48 authored by Alfonso Landeros, Xiang Ji, Kenneth Lange, Timothy C. Stutz, Jason Xu, Mary E. Sehl, Janet S. Sinsheimer

The color gradient changes from purple to blue to reflect R0 shifting from < 1 to > 1 in each ternary plot, with the white line denoting the boundary. Yellow is used to represent R0 > 6. (A-C) Assuming child-adult and adult-child transmission rates are identical (black axis), movement along the blue axis indicates that child-child transmission has a weak effect on R0 at a fixed scale for β0. (D-F) Fixing child-child transmission to be weak (β11 = 0.1) relative to other interactions, both child-adult and adult-adult transmission play dominant roles in increasing R0. (G-I) Fixing adult-adult transmission to be weak (β22 = 0.1), only child-adult transmission plays a dominant role in increasing R0.

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