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Modeled transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in schools in South Africa, Switzerland, and Tanzania.
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posted on 2024-01-18, 18:26 authored by Nicolas Banholzer, Remo Schmutz, Keren Middelkoop, Jerry Hella, Matthias Egger, Robin Wood, Lukas FennerMonthly transmission risk (median as dots, interquartile range as boxes, and 95%-CrI as lines) of SARS-CoV-2. Three scenarios are considered: low (70% breathing, 25% speaking, 5% loud speaking), medium (50% breathing, 40% speaking, 10% loud speaking), and high activity (30% breathing, 50% speaking, 20% loud speaking).
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using carbon dioxideparts per millioncongregate indoor settingscalled quanta ).cri ]), basedair change rate8 %- 43infectious disease transmissiontanzanian secondary schoolsdiv >< pbetter natural ventilation7 %- 890 %- 3airborne transmission risks1 %- 8mycobacterium tuberculosis 1 %- 6modeled transmission risksairborne transmissionventilation ratemtb infectious studentsinfectious doses8 %)tracer gasspecific reportingspecific estimatessouth africansouth africariley equationrespiratory infectionsreported estimatesprovide highppm ])monthly riskmodeled risklevel informationinterquartile rangehigher incidenceglobal comparisonsexcess mortalityestimated basedcredible intervalannual risk757 ppm648 ppm610 ppm6 %)4 %)
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