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Model structure for the transmission of CCHFV amongst livestock.

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posted on 2022-05-23, 17:48 authored by Juan F. Vesga, Madeleine H. A. Clark, Edris Ayazi, Andrea Apolloni, Toby Leslie, W. John Edmunds, Raphaёlle Métras

The structure shows the compartments and state transitions for livestock. Births occur at a rate equal to the mortality rate to maintain a population at equilibrium. Mortality rates are estimated to achieve a known livestock age-distributed population (see S2 Text). Offspring from prevalent CCHFV animals acquire transient immunity at birth through first colostrum (Ri). This immunity lasts for an assumed average period of 6 months. After this period, livestock move to the susceptible stage (S1). Susceptible livestock (Sa) acquire CCHFV with a force of infection λL that leads to an infectious period (Ia) with mean duration DiL, expressed as inverse time rate DiL-1. We assume that livestock lose immunity at a rate DmL.. Vaccination is implemented by recruiting susceptible animals at a rate ν(t). The effective number of immunised livestock is also defined by the efficacy of the vaccine (κ). At first, vaccination does not confer immunity Va, which is only acquired after a period of length DpV. In this structure, subscript a points to the age category within the age structure, over which transitions occurs as depicted with the shaded grey structure in the background

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