Expected transitions in a volatile sequence task.

A. At each presentation step, the stimulus presents the wallpaper image (indicated by different colors) in one of the rooms of an apartment with rooms (here ). The stimulation sequence reflects transitions (arrows) from the current room (current image) to one of the K neighboring rooms (here K = 4). On rare occasions (change points), the transition rule is changed by a new random assignment of images to rooms. The same rule is unlikely to return. B. The ground truth transition matrix for different rules m = 1, … 4 (left, yellow indicates , dark blue ), compared to the transition matrix T_ij estimated by the model (right, light blue and green: 0 < T_ij < 1/4) at different time points of a simulation run. Rule 1 at t = 1000 corresponds to the first configuration in A. C. Switching of rules over time in the simulation of B. Each rule (Rule 1, Rule 2, …) only appears once. Vertical lines indicate the time points in B.