Estimates and forecasts of obesity prevalence for females in urban areas, from models 4 and 5.

The top panel shows results from our first subnational model (Model 4), and the bottom panel shows results from our revised model (Model 5). The light bands represent 95% credible intervals, the dark bands represent 50% credible intervals, and the white lines represent medians. The black symbols represent direct school-based estimates from Fig 2.