Estimates and forecasts of national obesity prevalence from three models.

The top panel shows results for Model 1 using NHES data only, the middle panel shows results for Model 2 using NHES, HDTC, and schools data, and the bottom panel shows results for Model 3 with NHES, HDTC, and schools data plus WHO-based prior distributions for time terms. The light bands represent 95% credible intervals, the dark bands represent 50% credible intervals, and the white lines represent medians. The black symbols represent direct estimates from Fig 1. The vertical axis for the top panel extends from 0 to 1, while the vertical axes for the other panels extend from 0 to 0.7.