pcbi.1009374.g002.tif (2.4 MB)
Calibration results of our semi-empirical model for COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence (posterior median and 95% credible intervals for primary random effects model; posterior median only for geometric mean n = ½ model) for each state with state-wide seroprevalence data (reported point estimates and 95% confidence intervals shown).
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posted on 2021-09-07, 17:44 authored by Weihsueh A. Chiu, Martial L. Ndeffo-MbahOpen circles represent validation data not used for model calibration; remaining symbols represent calibration data.
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vaccination coverage neededrepresentative population samplinggeometrically weighted averageempirical modeling frameworkdriven mathematical modelsdriven epidemiological modelsusing test positivitytest positivity ratiostest positivity ratesreported cases correspondtimely data based3 %- 14reported case ratestwo independent datadriven bayesian semireported case rate1 %- 00 %- 1level seroprevalence datalevel prevalence ranging2 %- 2cri ): 1wide seroprevalence data8 %- 4reported casepositivity ratetwo datalevel prevalence3 %]1 %]level covid2 %],0 %]simple dataunited statesprevalence estimatesongoing spreadone thirdnew yorkinfection prevalencehighly biasedestimate nationeffectively responddecember 31credible intervalcommunicate approachactual infections9 %]
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