Spatiotemporal Evolution of China-Middle East Geo-economic Relations under the Belt and Road Initiative.xlsx

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, has become a cornerstone of China's international strategy, profoundly influencing its geo-economic relations with key regions, including the Middle East. However, the Middle East, as a crucial junction for China's Belt and Road Initiative towards the West, is fraught with complexity and uncertainty in geo-economic relations. Understanding these relations is essential for fostering deeper cooperation and addressing the region's emerging geopolitical and economic challenges. This paper uses the modified gravity model to measure geo-economic relations between China and Middle Eastern countries from 2010 to 2020, analyzing the main influencing factors with geographically and temporally weighted regression. The findings reveal that geo-economic relations between China and the Middle East have followed a fluctuating yet upward trajectory over the decade, primarily driven by economic strength, market dynamics, and geopolitical considerations, while acknowledging the secondary role of resource endowment. Additionally, the spatial pattern demonstrates a "high in the east and low in the west" distribution, with the geo-economic core gradually shifting northward along the Persian Gulf. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for targeted strategies to enhance future cooperation under the BRI framework.