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Welfare Changes from Agricultural Yield Shocks for 1-3 Degrees of Global Warming (Meta-Analysis)

posted on 2017-09-18, 21:25 authored by Frances MooreFrances Moore, Uris Baldos, Thomas Hertel, Delavane Diaz
Shape file with 140 GTAP regions giving welfare changes for 1-3 degrees of warming. Three values are given for each level of warming - the central estimate (50th percentile) and the upper (97.5th percentile) and lower (2.5th percentile) bounds of the 95% confidence interval. The column "VOM" gives the total value of the shocked sectors for that region, used to normalize the welfare changes to give % change, as reported in Moore et al (in press).

Welfare changes are equivalent variation and are based on yield shocks derived from a meta-analysis from the yield impacts database reported in Challinor et al. (2014). Gridded yield shocks used as input for the simulation are available at 10.6084/m9.figshare.5417548

Moore, F. C., Baldos, U., Hertel, T. W. & Diaz, D. New Science of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Implies Higher Social Cost of Carbon. Nat. Commun.

Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R. & Chhetri, N. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 287–291 (2014).