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posted on 2023-04-24, 17:31 authored by Katherine M. Gaskell, Natalie El Kheir, Mariyam Mirfendesky, Tommy Rampling, Michael Marks, Catherine F. Houlihan, Norbert Lemonge, Hannah Bristowe, Suhail Aslam, Demetra Kyprianou, Eleni Nastouli, David Goldblatt, Katherine Fielding, David A. J. Moore

Historically SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rates (SAR) have been based on PCR positivity on screening symptomatic contacts; this misses transmission events and identifies only symptomatic contacts who are PCR positive at the time of sampling. We used serology to detect the relative transmissibility of Alpha Variant of Concern (VOC) to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 to calculate household secondary attack rates. We identified index patients diagnosed with Alpha and non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 across two London Hospitals between November 2020 and January 2021 during a prolonged and well adhered national lockdown. We completed a household seroprevalence survey and found that 61.8% of non-VOC exposed household contacts were seropositive compared to 82.1% of Alpha exposed household contacts. The odds of infection doubled with exposure to an index diagnosed with Alpha. There was evidence of transmission events in almost all households. Our data strongly support that estimates of SAR should include serological data to improve accuracy and understanding.

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