Estimating the effect of increased contraceptive use on women's empowerment: using longitudinal PMA data, fixed effects modeling and fictive cohorts

Historically, family planning (FP) programs in low-income countries have been valued for their benefits to child and maternal health. Today, there is a focus on integrating contraceptive access into women's rights. However, measuring the impact of FP on women’s empowerment remains challenging due to a lack of experiments or longitudinal survey data. This paper aims to model the causal impact of increased contraceptive use on women's empowerment. Using longitudinal PMA data collected in 2019, 2020 and 2021 in Burkina Faso and fixed effects modeling, we estimate the effect of increases in contraceptive duration (number of months using modern or traditional methods over the past year) among women in union aged 20 to 44 on their labor force participation (LFP) and household decision-making power, controlling for age and fertility intentions. Results show that increases in contraceptive use attributable to improved access (controlling for fertility intentions) have a small yet positive and significative effect on women’s labor force participation; they are not linked to women’s decision-making power. A fictive cohort approach helps illustrate the magnitude of the effects. A woman, experiencing at every age the LFP rates observed for women in union between 20-44 in 2019-2021 in Burkina Faso PMA data, would work 11.95 years out of 25. Assuming an average increase in contraceptive duration of six months linked to improved access to contraceptive services in this population at every age, women’s number of years worked would increase from 11.95 to 12.48 (+4.4%). Several improvements in data collection are needed to strengthen the model. First, placing the waves two years apart or sustaining data collection for more years would be beneficial. Second, calendar data on occupation and fertility intentions and on the various events susceptible to modify them are needed to better estimate the causal impact of FP programs on women’s empowerment.