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Time Trends in the HIV Incidence, Prevalence, and Related Mortality in South Africa if the Proportion of Circumcised Men Remains Constant or Is Increased to Full Coverage (over Five or Ten Years)

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posted on 22.02.2013 by Brian G Williams, James O Lloyd-Smith, Eleanor Gouws, Catherine Hankins, Wayne M Getz, John Hargrove, Isabelle de Zoysa, Christopher Dye, Bertran Auvert

(A) HIV incidence

(B) HIV prevalence

(C) HIV-related mortality in South African adults assuming that full coverage of MC is reached in 2015. The model is fitted to the blue data points in (B).

(D–F) Repeat (A–C) but assuming that full coverage is reached in 2010 (see Protocol S1).

The blue lines give the projected values excluding the impact of MC or other additional interventions. The red, green, and pink lines give the projected values assuming that MC reduces female-to-male transmission by 32%, 60%, and 76%, respectively, corresponding to the estimated reduction and 95% confidence intervals observed in the RCT of MC [9].

On all graphs, the blue boxes on the left mark the period 2005 to 2015, the blue boxes on the right mark the period 2015 to 2025.




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