Simulations of an epidemic in a population of 10⁶ individuals.

The top panel shows the number of infected individuals (line) and mortality (bars) in the absence of an antiviral control program. The middle and bottom panel show simulations in case of a control program with an antiviral drug that provides complete (AVE_S = 1) and imperfect (AVE_S = 0.3, AVE_I = 0.8) protection, respectively. Black bars refer to deaths caused by type 1 infection, grey bars to deaths caused by type 2 infections, and light bars to deaths caused by antiviral prophylaxis. The grey line in the bottom panel shows the number of infected individuals who were taking antiviral prophylaxis.