Understanding frost risk in a variable and changing climate - the southern frost paradox

This Thesis examines whether Australia has experienced spatially coherent changes in frost risk, driven by variations in synoptic scale weather patterns, leading to increases and persistent production losses for winter cereal producers. This research has included examination of the trends in Australian minimum temperatures to determine if trends are localised or more spatially coherent; examination of the links between minimum temperature extremes and synoptic drivers; statistical modelling of the spatial and temporal changes in minimum temperatures to identify changes in dominant synoptic drivers and to determine if there was an anthropogenic signal related to this change; use of the modelling approach to project possible future (2030) changes in minimum temperature extremes; and examination of the impacts of recent changes in minimum temperature extremes on Australian crop production.