Fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular event in two communities- PHASA 2017

Background: The prevalence and incidences of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and associated risk factors, may be influenced by the environment in which one lives. This study aimed to identify the most significant modifiable CV risk factors associated with fatal and non-fatal CV events over five years within a selected group of black South Africans, in the North West Province.

Methods: Risk factors associated with fatal and non-fatal CV events were assessed of 746 males and 1 263 females from rural and urban areas, aged 35-70 years.

Results: A positive correlation between suffering from a non-fatal CV event and age (r_pb=0.14, p<0.01) were reported, as well as all blood pressure parameters with systolic blood pressure (SBP) revealing the strongest correlation (r_pb=0.14, p<0.01). Binary logistic regression analysis found age (β= 0.044), education (β=0.645), weighted physical activity index (β=-0.893) and Framingham risk score (FRS) (β=0.038) to be important predictors of non-fatal CV events, whereas age (β=0.074) and glycated haemoglobin (β=-1.163) were important predictors of fatal CV events. ROC curve analyses reported all blood pressure measurements and FRS to be likely associated with both fatal and non-fatal CV outcomes.

Conclusions: Elevated blood pressure is the most significant predictor for both fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in a selected group of black South Africans.