2016_45. Grinin, Korotayev Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System.docx (1.84 MB)
GLOBAL POPULATION AGEING, THE SIXTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE, AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Concerns about
population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it
has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population
ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the
future society characteristics and the direction of technological development.
The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its
important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on
this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological
breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final
phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the
upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the
sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological
changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and
related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments
that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing
elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful
use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary
guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people
in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in
the developed states