Epidemiologic analysis of temporal evolution of papaya sticky disease

ABSTRACT Analysis of temporal evolution of papaya sticky disease provides subsidies to understand the etiology, verify the dispersion and generate information about the influence of cultural, biological and environmental factors on the population dynamics of the pathogen/disease, providing data for the design of disease management strategies. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize the temporal evolution in plants affected by papaya sticky disease in commercial orchards at Linhares Municipality, north of Espírito Santo State, Brazil. The experiment was conducted in commercial fields of papaya cv. ‘Sunrise Golden’, where the disease intensity was assessed in each orchard and, at the end, disease progress curves were generated. The data of curves were subjected to simple linear regression analysis, adjusted to the empirical models Logistic, Monomolecular and Gompertz. The most favorable period of the year for the disease development were colder and dry months, while the warmest and wettest months favored the mitigation of symptoms. Finally, the model that best fitted to the papaya sticky disease epidemics was the Gompertz model.