es400069b_si_001.pdf (1.78 MB)
0/0

Dynamic Analysis of Global Copper Flows. Global Stocks, Postconsumer Material Flows, Recycling Indicators, and Uncertainty Evaluation

Download (1.78 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 16.12.2015 by Simon Glöser, Marcel Soulier, Luis A. Tercero Espinoza
We present a dynamic model of global copper stocks and flows which allows a detailed analysis of recycling efficiencies, copper stocks in use, and dissipated and landfilled copper. The model is based on historical mining and refined copper production data (1910–2010) enhanced by a unique data set of recent global semifinished goods production and copper end-use sectors provided by the copper industry. To enable the consistency of the simulated copper life cycle in terms of a closed mass balance, particularly the matching of recycled metal flows to reported historical annual production data, a method was developed to estimate the yearly global collection rates of end-of-life (postconsumer) scrap. Based on this method, we provide estimates of 8 different recycling indicators over time. The main indicator for the efficiency of global copper recycling from end-of-life (EoL) scrapthe EoL recycling ratewas estimated to be 45% on average, ± 5% (one standard deviation) due to uncertainty and variability over time in the period 2000–2010. As uncertainties of specific input datamainly concerning assumptions on end-use lifetimes and their distributionare high, a sensitivity analysis with regard to the effect of uncertainties in the input data on the calculated recycling indicators was performed. The sensitivity analysis included a stochastic (Monte Carlo) uncertainty evaluation with 105 simulation runs.

History

Exports