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Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation
In the event of a single, low-yield nuclear detonation in a major urban
area, rapidly providing adequate shelter to affected populations could
save 10 000–100 000 individuals from a fatal exposure to fallout
radiation. However, poorly sheltered individuals may remain at risk.
Current guidance and prior studies are not consistent as to the timing
and conditions under which poorly sheltered individuals should leave
their shelters to evacuate or obtain better shelter. This study proposes
methods to determine the optimal shelter time based on information
potentially available following a nuclear detonation. For the case in
which individuals move to an adequate shelter that can be reached within
15 min, individuals should stay in a poor-quality shelter for at most
30 min after the detonation. If adequate shelter is available nearby
(within 5 min), then poorly sheltered individuals should immediately
proceed to the better shelter.