Dataset for: Assessing the predictive accuracy of earthquake strike angle estimates using non-parametric Hawkes processes.
2018-01-23T01:12:01Z (GMT) by
Earthquake focal mechanism estimates have been posited to have predictive value for forecasting future seismicity. In particular, for strike-slip earthquakes, aftershocks should occur roughly along the estimated mainshock strike. However, the errors in such estimated strike angles is considerable. We compare the degree to which estimated strike angles forecast the direction of future seismicity around a given earthquake to that of uniformly distributed angles and to strike angles estimated based on previous seismicity. The fit of non-parametrically estimated Hawkes models using the estimated strike angle that best fits the post-mainshock set of events for each mainshock is compared to that of corresponding models that exclude these estimates. Strike angle estimates are shown to have marginal predictive value for forecasting the direction of future seismicity, but no more than the better-fitting of a uniformly distributed angle and its complement.