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Can China Comply with Its 12th Five-Year Plan on Industrial Emissions Control: A Structural Decomposition Analysis
journal contribution
posted on 2015-04-21, 00:00 authored by Wei Zhang, Jinnan Wang, Bing Zhang, Jun Bi, Hongqiang JiangChina’s
rapid economic growth has caused serious environmental
problems, resulting in the implementation of two major measuresend-of-pipe
facilities and the phasing out of backward capacityto reduce
China’s industrial emissions as part of its 11th Five-Year
Plan (FYP, 2006–2010). It is important to determine whether
China can meet the targets set forth in its 12th FYP (2011–2015)
for industrial pollution reduction using these same solutions. In
this paper, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to identify
the contributions of the adopted measuresas well as other
underlying factorsand to evaluate the feasibility of the reduction
target in China’s 12th FYP. Results show that the decrease in major industrial pollutant emissions achieved during the 11th FYP resulted from improved technological efficiency, including end-of-pipe abatement efficiency and pollutant generation intensity. The same measures adopted during China’s
12th FYP can address the problem of industrial wastewater emissions
resulting from economic growth when the economic structure is kept
constant. But it may not fulfill its commitment of reducing industrial
atmospheric pollutants emissions unless the economic structure and
growth patterns are drastically reformed.