A survey of valleys and basins of the western United States for the capacity to produce winter ozone

High winter ozone in the Uintah Basin, Utah, and the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming, occurs because of the confluence of three separate factors: (1) extensive oil or natural gas production, (2) topography conducive to strong multiple-day thermal inversions, and (3) snow cover. We surveyed 13 basins and valleys in the western United States for the existence and magnitude of these factors. Seven of the basins, because winter ozone measurements were available, were assigned to four different behavioral classes. Based on similarities among the basins, the remaining six were also given a tentative assignment. Two classes (1 and 2) correspond to basins with high ozone because all three factors just listed are present at sufficient magnitude. Class 3 corresponds to rural basins with ozone at background levels, and occurs because at least one of the three factors is weak or absent. Class 4 corresponds to ozone below background levels, and occurs, for example, in urban basins where emissions scavenge ozone. All three factors are present in the Wind River Basin, Wyoming, but compared to the Uintah or the Upper Green Basins, it has only moderate oil and gas production and is assigned to class 3. We predict that the Wind River Basin, as well as other class 3 basins that have inversions and snow cover, would transition from background (class 3) to high ozone behavior (class 1 or 2) if oil or gas production were to intensify, or to class 4 (low winter ozone) if they were to become urban.

Implications: High ozone concentrations in winter only occur in basins or valleys that have an active oil and natural gas production industry, multiple-day thermal inversions, and snow cover, and have only been documented in two basins worldwide. We have examined a number of other candidate basins in the western United States and conclude that these factors are either absent or too weak to produce high winter ozone. This study illustrates how strong each factor needs to be before winter ozone can be expected, and can be used by planners and regulators to foresee the development of winter ozone problems.