A Bayesian network highlighting the linkages between landscape structure and the local economy: the case of agritourism in lowland areas of Northern Italy

Linking landscapes to socio-economic benefits necessarily requires considering the usability of landscape structure. To do so, however, depends on the interaction between users and producers of landscape-related services. We illustrate this interaction with a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in a case study analysing the connection between residents' perceptions of landscape structure and agritourism restaurants in the eastern lowlands of Ferrara (Italy). We use estimates of prior and conditional probabilities from a mix of different data: land use, survey data, regional statistics, and expert judgements to show the likely effects of the landscape structure on the local economy by using intermediate forms of services (i.e. second-order services). The second-order service is highly influenced by the agritourism density and by the frequency with which customers dine at agritourism restaurants and less by landscape attractiveness, confirming the importance of the supply and demand of second-order services in the provision of landscape-related services.