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Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Increases Fleet Gasoline Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions under United States Corporate Average Fuel Economy Policy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards
Version 2 2016-02-12, 20:17
Version 1 2016-02-11, 17:05
journal contribution
posted on 2016-02-11, 00:00 authored by Alan Jenn, Inês M. L. Azevedo, Jeremy J. MichalekThe United States Corporate Average
Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards
and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission standards are designed to reduce
petroleum consumption and GHG emissions from light-duty passenger
vehicles. They do so by requiring automakers to meet aggregate criteria
for fleet fuel efficiency and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission
rates. Several incentives for manufacturers to sell alternative fuel
vehicles (AFVs) have been introduced in recent updates of CAFE/GHG
policy for vehicles sold from 2012 through 2025 to help encourage
a fleet technology transition. These incentives allow automakers that
sell AFVs to meet less-stringent fleet efficiency targets, resulting
in increased fleet-wide gasoline consumption and emissions. We derive
a closed-form expression to quantify these effects. We find that each
time an AFV is sold in place of a conventional vehicle, fleet emissions
increase by 0 to 60 t of CO2 and gasoline consumption increases
by 0 to 7000 gallons (26,000 L), depending on the AFV and year of
sale. Using projections for vehicles sold from 2012 to 2025 from the
Energy Information Administration, we estimate that the CAFE/GHG AFV
incentives lead to a cumulative increase of 30 to 70 million metric
tons of CO2 and 3 to 8 billion gallons (11 to 30 billion
liters) of gasoline consumed over the vehicles’ lifetimes –
the largest share of which is due to legacy GHG flex-fuel vehicle
credits that expire in 2016. These effects may be 30–40% larger
in practice than we estimate here due to optimistic laboratory vehicle
efficiency tests used in policy compliance calculations.
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions StandardsThe United StatesGHGAverage Fuel Economy PolicyAlternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Increases Fleet Gasoline ConsumptionAFValternative fuel vehiclesCO 2fleet technology transitionfleet fuel efficiencyGreenhouse Gas EmissionsAverage Fuel Economyincentivefleet emissions increaselaboratory vehicle efficiency testsEnergy Information Administrationpolicy compliance calculationsgasoline consumption increases
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