Ecological Archives M075-009-A1

Bruce E. Kendall, Stephen P. Ellner, Edward McCauley, Simon N. Wood, Cheryl J. Briggs, William W. Murdoch, and Peter Turchin. 2005. Population cycles in the pine looper moth (Bupalus piniarius): Dynamical tests of mechanistic hypotheses. Ecological Monographs 75:259–276.

Appendix A. Details of model development. A pdf version of this appendix is also available.


Single parasitoid models

In the absence of C. viator parasitism, the rescaled full parasitoid model has AtNt and Nt+1 =  Pt+1, so we can eliminate A and P from the model, giving
A constant but nonzero rate of C. viator parasitism leads to the same equations, with mortality due to C. viator parasitism absorbed into the intrinsic rate of increase er.

Similarly, if parasitism by Dusona is absent then Pt+1 = Lt+1 and we can eliminate L, giving

and the same equations hold after re-scaling if Dusona parasitism is constant.

 

Scaling the maternal effects model

Using Eq. 14 of the text to eliminate Et from the 3-equation model yields

We now make the following substitutions:

Substituting these into Eqs. A.9–A.10 and suppressing the primes gives the final form of the model.

 

Oviposition preference function for food quality model

The data in Fig. 1 of Šmits et al. (2001) presumably represent the number of eggs after some eggs have dropped off the new needles. Thus we need to correct those data to reconstruct the egg laying preference. Let be the fraction of eggs observed on mature needles (from the figure) and let be the fraction of eggs that fall off of new needles. Then the true fraction of eggs laid on mature needles is

We digitized the data from Fig. 1 of Šmits et al. (2001), and corrected the oviposition fraction (using Eq. A.17) for the estimated value of and for the extreme values observed. After some trial and error we fit the corrected preference data with an equation of the form

which appears to provide a satisfactory fit (Fig. A1). The parameter estimates are in Table A1.

 

 
   FIG. A1: Fits of Eq. A.18 under different egg drop assumptions. The circles are data; the lines are the fitted curves.

 

TABLE A1. Estimated value of from Eq. A.18, along with its standard error and the standard error of the residuals.

Data
SE ()
Residual SE
Observed
1.998
0.114
0.151
= 0.21
1.843
0.102
0.154
= 0.10
1.927
0.109
0.152
= 0.38
1.695
0.091
0.156

 

LITERATURE CITED

Šmits, A., S. Larsson, and R. Hopkins. 2001. Reduced realised fecundity in the pine looper Bupalus piniarius caused by host plant defoliation. Ecological Entomology 26:417–424.

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