Supplementary Tables
Supplementary Table 1. Study site info.
Supplementary Table 2. Dataset.
Supplementary Table 3 - 11. Model summaries for Figure 2: Herbivory and shrub, herb and tree layer cover changes.
Supplementary Table 12 - 15. Model summaries for Figure 3: Herbivory, species richness and temporal turnover.
Supplementary Table 16 - 23. Model summaries for Figure 4: Herbivory and community composition.
Supplementary Table 24 - 25. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 2: Shrub cover versus non-native, nitrophilous spp.
Supplementary Table 26 - 29. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 3: N-deposition and community composition.
Supplementary Table 30 - 37. Model summaries for Figure 4: Interaction between herbivory and N-deposition.
Supplementary Table 38 - 39. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 4: Differences in N-numbers.
Supplementary Table 40 - 43. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, accounting for productivity.
Supplementary Table 44 - 47. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, accounting for tree cover
Supplementary Table 48 - 51. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, excluding baseline herbivory.
Supplementary Tables
Supplementary Table 1. Study site info.
Supplementary Table 1: Dataset ID, country, site name, year of the baseline survey and resurvey [when one survey (baseline or resurvey) was carried out over several years, the list shows the earliest baseline survey and the latest resurvey in which all vegetation layers were sampled] and coordinates.
Dataset ID
|
Country
|
Site name
|
Baseline yr
|
Resurvey yr
|
Lat
|
Long
|
1
|
Belgium
|
Meerdaalwoud
|
1954
|
2000
|
50.799
|
4.708
|
2
|
Sweden
|
Dalby
|
1935
|
1976
|
55.692
|
13.330
|
3
|
Sweden
|
Dalby
|
1976
|
2002
|
55.692
|
13.330
|
4
|
Germany
|
Elbe-Weser
|
1986
|
2008
|
53.552
|
8.984
|
5
|
Czech Republic
|
Děvín Wood
|
1953
|
2002
|
48.867
|
16.630
|
6
|
Czech Republic
|
Milovice Wood
|
1953
|
2006
|
48.838
|
16.690
|
7
|
Czech Republic
|
Rychlebské hory Mts.
|
1942
|
1998
|
50.267
|
17.083
|
8
|
United Kingdom
|
Wytham Woods
|
1974
|
1999
|
51.773
|
-1.334
|
9
|
Germany
|
Göttingen, SFB
|
1980
|
2001
|
51.530
|
10.048
|
10
|
Germany
|
Göttingen, Carici-Fagetum
|
1960
|
2011
|
51.333
|
9.820
|
11
|
Germany
|
Göttingen, Hordelymo-Fagetum
|
1960
|
2009
|
51.556
|
10.019
|
12
|
Austria
|
Zöbelboden
|
1993
|
2005
|
46.840
|
14.440
|
13
|
Hungary
|
Heves
|
1989
|
2008
|
47.988
|
20.501
|
14
|
Germany
|
Brandenburg
|
1962
|
2012
|
52.059
|
13.857
|
15
|
Slovakia
|
Slovakia, South-West
|
1966
|
2007
|
48.398
|
17.341
|
16
|
Slovakia
|
Slovakia, Central
|
1964
|
2005
|
48.258
|
19.378
|
17
|
Slovakia
|
Slovakia, North-East
|
1965
|
2006
|
49.215
|
21.850
|
18
|
Czech Republic
|
České Středohoří
|
1965
|
2012
|
50.586
|
14.116
|
19
|
Czech Republic
|
Krumlov Wood
|
1964
|
2012
|
49.053
|
16.384
|
20
|
Czech Republic
|
Hodonínská Dúbrava
|
1965
|
2012
|
48.882
|
17.104
|
21
|
Czech Republic
|
Ždánice Wood
|
1959
|
2012
|
49.099
|
17.030
|
22
|
Poland
|
Białowieża
|
1966
|
2012
|
52.700
|
23.870
|
23
|
Sweden
|
Skåne
|
1983
|
2014
|
55.881
|
13.719
|
24
|
Hungary
|
Zselic
|
1958
|
2018
|
46.295
|
17.861
|
25
|
Germany
|
Göttingen, Hünstollen
|
1992
|
2002
|
51.578
|
10.047
|
26
|
Poland
|
Bazaltowa Mt
|
1992
|
2010
|
51.008
|
16.132
|
27
|
Poland
|
Buki Sudeckie beech forest
|
1990
|
2014
|
50.943
|
16.028
|
28
|
Poland
|
Trzebnickie Hills
|
1962
|
2011
|
51.262
|
16.816
|
29
|
Germany
|
Prignitz
|
1954
|
2014
|
53.080
|
12.280
|
30
|
Germany
|
Brandenburg Nord
|
1963
|
2014
|
53.064
|
13.471
|
31
|
Germany
|
Brandenburg Süd
|
1960
|
2014
|
51.792
|
13.801
|
32
|
Germany
|
Unteres Spreewald-Randgebiet
|
1965
|
2010
|
52.088
|
13.934
|
33
|
Slovenia
|
Strmec
|
1983
|
2015
|
45.622
|
14.819
|
34
|
Slovenia
|
Rajhenavski Rog
|
1983
|
2015
|
45.663
|
15.012
|
35
|
Slovenia
|
Pecka
|
1983
|
2015
|
45.755
|
14.999
|
36
|
France
|
Compiègne forest
|
1970
|
2015
|
49.364
|
2.887
|
37
|
Hungary
|
Bakony és Gerecse
|
1955
|
2015
|
47.202
|
18.075
|
38
|
Hungary
|
Bükkalja és Dél-Cserehát
|
1953
|
2014
|
47.909
|
20.399
|
39
|
Hungary
|
Gödöllői-dombság
|
1950
|
2014
|
47.589
|
19.396
|
40
|
Hungary
|
Mátra-Bükk-Zemplén
|
1958
|
2015
|
48.194
|
20.903
|
41
|
Hungary
|
Őrség
|
1954
|
2014
|
46.916
|
16.567
|
42
|
Hungary
|
Visegrádi-hegység
|
1953
|
2015
|
47.730
|
18.963
|
43
|
Germany
|
Großer Staufenberg
|
1988
|
1998
|
51.625
|
10.636
|
44
|
Germany
|
Riedried
|
1986
|
2018
|
49.033
|
8.230
|
45
|
Czech Republic
|
Śnieżnik Massif
|
1955
|
2013
|
50.231
|
16.917
|
46
|
Germany
|
Göttinger Wald (Fliehburgen)
|
1955
|
2015
|
51.576
|
10.008
|
47
|
Poland
|
N-E Puszcza Niepołomicka
|
1966
|
2019
|
50.093
|
20.373
|
48
|
Ukraine
|
Zakarpatska oblast
|
1935
|
1997
|
48.400
|
23.100
|
49
|
Ukraine
|
Zakarpatska oblast
|
1935
|
1997
|
48.400
|
23.100
|
50
|
Ukraine
|
Zakarpatska oblast
|
1935
|
1997
|
48.400
|
23.100
|
51
|
Poland
|
Riparian forests of the Oder Valley (near Wrocław)
|
1959
|
2019
|
50.930
|
17.350
|
52
|
Poland
|
Dolina Wapienicy (Wapienica Valley)
|
1991
|
2020
|
49.757
|
18.981
|
Supplementary Table 2. Dataset.
Supplementary Table 2: Data table with key variables. Shown here is the dataset ID; HP = change in herbivore pressure; Cum N-dep = cumulative N-deposition; RL% = % change in red list species/; Non-native % = % change in Non-native species; SR = change in species richness; herb cover; shrub cover; CWM-N = change in community weighted mean N value; Man 1800 = management in year 1800 (CWS = coppicing with standards; HF = high forest), Mgmt change = management change between baseline and resurvey.
Dataset ID
|
Δ HP
|
Cum N-dep
|
Δ RL %
|
Δ Non-native %
|
Δ SR
|
Δ Herb cover
|
Δ Shrub cover
|
Δ CWM-N
|
Man 1800
|
Mgmt change
|
1
|
0.0
|
1295.51
|
0.00
|
5.29
|
-4
|
-66.67
|
-11.90
|
0.14
|
CWS
|
Decline
|
2
|
6.0
|
544.46
|
5.94
|
2.20
|
-21
|
-14.14
|
-17.88
|
0.18
|
HF
|
Similar
|
3
|
6.0
|
630.31
|
-3.61
|
3.06
|
5
|
-46.96
|
-3.90
|
-0.07
|
HF
|
Similar
|
4
|
0.0
|
503.80
|
-0.31
|
0.54
|
26
|
-78.76
|
-12.73
|
-0.03
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
5
|
6.0
|
1107.00
|
-3.45
|
-0.10
|
-93
|
-56.30
|
0.52
|
0.59
|
CWS
|
Decline
|
6
|
18.0
|
1185.39
|
-5.85
|
11.13
|
-32
|
-36.41
|
-19.72
|
0.89
|
CWS
|
Decline
|
7
|
6.0
|
1028.09
|
0.59
|
0.59
|
-33
|
-94.05
|
1.44
|
-0.22
|
HF
|
Similar
|
8
|
11.0
|
583.97
|
1.29
|
0.00
|
-18
|
24.87
|
NA
|
-0.11
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
9
|
0.0
|
456.89
|
0.03
|
0.00
|
-2
|
93.60
|
18.02
|
0.06
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
10
|
2.0
|
1095.38
|
-3.82
|
0.90
|
-15
|
46.47
|
26.39
|
0.27
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
11
|
2.0
|
1011.71
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
-13
|
10.86
|
8.07
|
0.20
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
12
|
0.0
|
223.66
|
1.53
|
0.00
|
4
|
-46.84
|
0.01
|
0.13
|
HF
|
Similar
|
13
|
0.0
|
344.98
|
-0.83
|
0.00
|
-34
|
NA
|
NA
|
0.17
|
HF
|
Similar
|
14
|
9.0
|
935.83
|
1.76
|
2.13
|
21
|
37.56
|
2.19
|
0.02
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
15
|
7.0
|
783.12
|
0.83
|
2.40
|
-9
|
-3.06
|
3.50
|
0.22
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
16
|
3.0
|
773.06
|
-0.62
|
0.67
|
-4
|
-3.90
|
5.17
|
0.30
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
17
|
3.0
|
770.90
|
0.00
|
1.52
|
-2
|
-24.73
|
-4.75
|
0.13
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
18
|
7.0
|
874.61
|
-1.32
|
4.74
|
-10
|
-34.42
|
6.31
|
0.83
|
CWS / HF
|
Decline
|
19
|
18.0
|
890.17
|
-1.70
|
11.99
|
90
|
-24.56
|
-3.97
|
0.65
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
20
|
6.0
|
854.62
|
0.96
|
1.90
|
25
|
14.36
|
9.57
|
0.15
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
21
|
6.0
|
923.88
|
-2.07
|
8.57
|
4
|
-51.24
|
0.73
|
0.38
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
22
|
4.0
|
812.93
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-7
|
-3.89
|
19.05
|
0.14
|
HF
|
Similar
|
23
|
4.0
|
516.31
|
-0.60
|
4.94
|
-9
|
-23.27
|
-1.55
|
0.11
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
24
|
11.0
|
998.39
|
0.00
|
2.04
|
-33
|
-95.54
|
-33.20
|
0.40
|
HF
|
Similar
|
25
|
0.0
|
157.96
|
0.10
|
-0.73
|
-13
|
-15.31
|
14.21
|
-0.02
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
26
|
5.0
|
281.30
|
1.07
|
1.07
|
43
|
13.88
|
0.87
|
0.28
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
27
|
4.0
|
375.06
|
-1.64
|
1.12
|
35
|
31.91
|
4.12
|
-0.08
|
HF
|
Decline
|
28
|
-7.5
|
815.47
|
0.00
|
2.49
|
4
|
-52.73
|
-14.28
|
-0.26
|
HF
|
Decline
|
29
|
5.0
|
914.52
|
-0.70
|
2.61
|
11
|
-47.45
|
-1.32
|
0.18
|
CWS / HF
|
Similar
|
30
|
9.0
|
817.16
|
-3.14
|
1.76
|
4
|
22.67
|
15.14
|
0.40
|
CWS / HF
|
Decline
|
31
|
9.0
|
857.72
|
-0.44
|
1.52
|
44
|
26.20
|
4.45
|
0.60
|
CWS / HF
|
Decline
|
32
|
9.0
|
725.61
|
-0.83
|
2.50
|
37
|
-10.14
|
-0.28
|
0.38
|
HF
|
Similar
|
33
|
0.0
|
485.57
|
2.71
|
0.00
|
-35
|
-37.86
|
0.59
|
0.08
|
HF
|
Similar
|
34
|
0.0
|
474.97
|
2.41
|
0.00
|
-16
|
-46.00
|
13.56
|
-0.08
|
HF
|
Similar
|
35
|
0.0
|
467.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
-21
|
-75.62
|
9.51
|
-0.08
|
HF
|
Similar
|
36
|
1.0
|
677.73
|
0.37
|
1.46
|
39
|
66.96
|
10.13
|
0.29
|
HF
|
Similar
|
37
|
17.0
|
842.89
|
1.94
|
2.26
|
-51
|
-60.98
|
-21.79
|
0.66
|
HF
|
Decline
|
38
|
14.0
|
805.98
|
-0.79
|
1.89
|
-98
|
-93.10
|
-24.73
|
0.78
|
HF
|
Similar
|
39
|
13.0
|
814.59
|
-1.12
|
2.04
|
-21
|
-24.21
|
5.87
|
0.60
|
HF
|
Decline
|
40
|
17.0
|
774.21
|
-3.32
|
1.52
|
-71
|
-49.48
|
-2.77
|
0.28
|
HF
|
Similar
|
41
|
13.0
|
784.58
|
-1.36
|
1.84
|
-77
|
-56.74
|
-1.79
|
1.23
|
HF
|
Similar
|
42
|
16.0
|
800.16
|
-0.48
|
0.60
|
-35
|
-35.65
|
0.00
|
0.55
|
HF
|
Decline
|
43
|
-1.0
|
129.69
|
2.56
|
0.12
|
-4
|
-1.41
|
2.37
|
-0.10
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
44
|
1.0
|
399.87
|
-1.43
|
1.85
|
18
|
-60.40
|
14.81
|
0.03
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
45
|
13.0
|
753.30
|
1.64
|
-0.60
|
-36
|
-2.41
|
4.32
|
-0.57
|
HF
|
Similar
|
46
|
0.0
|
768.20
|
0.34
|
-0.18
|
-42
|
-0.73
|
22.34
|
0.09
|
CWS
|
Similar
|
47
|
6.0
|
683.00
|
-0.18
|
-4.51
|
16
|
40.37
|
19.62
|
-0.08
|
HF
|
Similar
|
48
|
-6.0
|
581.37
|
0.48
|
0.48
|
-19
|
-63.55
|
20.75
|
0.29
|
HF
|
Similar
|
49
|
-4.0
|
541.78
|
0.10
|
0.05
|
-8
|
-74.17
|
22.85
|
0.08
|
HF
|
Similar
|
50
|
-1.0
|
537.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
18
|
-28.19
|
4.26
|
-0.09
|
HF
|
Similar
|
51
|
6.0
|
677.41
|
0.58
|
6.19
|
9
|
11.22
|
-0.27
|
0.03
|
HF
|
Similar
|
52
|
-1.0
|
282.02
|
-1.14
|
-0.21
|
12
|
-13.08
|
-13.09
|
0.02
|
HF
|
Similar
|
Supplementary Table 3 - 11. Model summaries for Figure 2: Herbivory and shrub, herb and tree layer cover changes.
Supplementary Table 3: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and shrub cover (Figure 2a). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.01
|
0.14
|
-0.28
|
0.25
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.42
|
0.17
|
-0.76
|
-0.10
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.14
|
0.15
|
-0.17
|
0.42
|
Time span
|
0.14
|
0.16
|
-0.17
|
0.45
|
Site area (log)
|
0.00
|
0.16
|
-0.31
|
0.33
|
Supplementary Table 4: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and herb cover (Figure 2b). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.01
|
0.14
|
-0.27
|
0.28
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.02
|
0.17
|
-0.37
|
0.32
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.09
|
0.16
|
-0.41
|
0.22
|
Time span
|
-0.27
|
0.17
|
-0.59
|
0.06
|
Site area (log)
|
0.12
|
0.17
|
-0.23
|
0.46
|
Supplementary Table 5: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and tree cover (Figure 2c). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.01
|
0.14
|
-0.30
|
0.28
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.13
|
0.18
|
-0.22
|
0.47
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.12
|
0.17
|
-0.20
|
0.44
|
Time span
|
0.09
|
0.16
|
-0.24
|
0.41
|
Site area (log)
|
0.05
|
0.17
|
-0.29
|
0.38
|
Supplementary Table 6: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and shrub layer cover, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.061
|
0.154
|
-0.243
|
0.368
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.379
|
0.176
|
-0.725
|
-0.029
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.168
|
0.153
|
-0.136
|
0.469
|
Time span
|
0.160
|
0.161
|
-0.148
|
0.481
|
Site area (log)
|
0.003
|
0.157
|
-0.306
|
0.306
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
-0.364
|
0.348
|
-1.037
|
0.318
|
Supplementary Table 7: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and shrub layer cover, after accounting for historical forest management. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.254
|
0.218
|
-0.684
|
0.179
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.385
|
0.177
|
-0.738
|
-0.034
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.143
|
0.155
|
-0.156
|
0.450
|
Time span
|
0.223
|
0.169
|
-0.107
|
0.555
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.121
|
0.235
|
-0.595
|
0.335
|
Mgmt: CWS/HF
|
0.472
|
0.508
|
-0.538
|
1.467
|
Mgmt: CWS
|
0.500
|
0.347
|
-0.168
|
1.169
|
Supplementary Table 8: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and herb layer cover, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.006
|
0.171
|
-0.330
|
0.341
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.017
|
0.181
|
-0.384
|
0.329
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.092
|
0.167
|
-0.428
|
0.239
|
Time span
|
-0.265
|
0.169
|
-0.603
|
0.064
|
Site area (log)
|
0.115
|
0.178
|
-0.227
|
0.461
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.000
|
0.370
|
-0.709
|
0.711
|
Supplementary Table 9: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and herb layer cover, after accounting for historical forest management. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.196
|
0.224
|
-0.627
|
0.245
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.023
|
0.190
|
-0.407
|
0.346
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.088
|
0.161
|
-0.398
|
0.239
|
Time span
|
-0.177
|
0.180
|
-0.532
|
0.164
|
Site area (log)
|
0.085
|
0.251
|
-0.418
|
0.565
|
Mgmt: CWS/HF
|
0.246
|
0.552
|
-0.821
|
1.360
|
Mgmt: CWS
|
0.545
|
0.373
|
-0.210
|
1.293
|
Supplementary Table 10: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and tree layer cover, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.152
|
0.168
|
-0.485
|
0.177
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.059
|
0.178
|
-0.291
|
0.408
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.055
|
0.166
|
-0.269
|
0.383
|
Time span
|
0.044
|
0.163
|
-0.278
|
0.354
|
Site area (log)
|
0.033
|
0.172
|
-0.316
|
0.369
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.678
|
0.373
|
-0.033
|
1.410
|
Supplementary Table 11: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and tree layer cover, after accounting for historical forest management. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.011
|
0.230
|
-0.443
|
0.459
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.025
|
0.194
|
-0.338
|
0.418
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.076
|
0.173
|
-0.253
|
0.411
|
Time span
|
0.105
|
0.180
|
-0.252
|
0.456
|
Site area (log)
|
0.282
|
0.254
|
-0.226
|
0.788
|
Mgmt: CWS/HF
|
-0.572
|
0.566
|
-1.683
|
0.534
|
Mgmt: CWS
|
0.354
|
0.366
|
-0.379
|
1.087
|
Supplementary Table 12 - 15. Model summaries for Figure 3: Herbivory, species richness and temporal turnover.
Supplementary Table 12: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and spp. richness (Figure 3a). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.00
|
0.14
|
-0.27
|
0.27
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.23
|
0.17
|
-0.56
|
0.10
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.02
|
0.14
|
-0.27
|
0.31
|
Time span
|
-0.28
|
0.16
|
-0.59
|
0.04
|
Site area (log)
|
0.28
|
0.16
|
-0.04
|
0.60
|
Supplementary Table 13: Summary of the model testing the association between herbivory change and spp. exchange ratio (Figure 3b). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.001
|
0.117
|
-0.228
|
0.232
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.518
|
0.141
|
0.240
|
0.790
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.036
|
0.122
|
-0.207
|
0.279
|
Time span
|
0.321
|
0.133
|
0.057
|
0.587
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.248
|
0.137
|
-0.510
|
0.023
|
Supplementary Table 14: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and species richness, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.011
|
0.163
|
-0.315
|
0.327
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.223
|
0.173
|
-0.555
|
0.114
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.022
|
0.148
|
-0.260
|
0.310
|
Time span
|
-0.270
|
0.162
|
-0.591
|
0.048
|
Site area (log)
|
0.275
|
0.167
|
-0.057
|
0.606
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.065
|
0.373
|
-0.662
|
0.810
|
Supplementary Table 15: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and species exchange ratio, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.048
|
0.133
|
-0.317
|
0.210
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.495
|
0.146
|
0.207
|
0.783
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.018
|
0.127
|
-0.234
|
0.268
|
Time span
|
0.308
|
0.136
|
0.045
|
0.578
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.251
|
0.141
|
-0.529
|
0.022
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.242
|
0.311
|
-0.373
|
0.855
|
Supplementary Table 16 - 23. Model summaries for Figure 4: Herbivory and community composition.
Supplementary Table 16: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and CWM N number (Figure 4a). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.001
|
0.117
|
-0.226
|
0.229
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.432
|
0.149
|
0.138
|
0.725
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.011
|
0.127
|
-0.228
|
0.264
|
Time span
|
0.162
|
0.137
|
-0.107
|
0.431
|
Site area (log)
|
0.116
|
0.144
|
-0.169
|
0.401
|
Supplementary Table 17: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % non-native spp. (Figure 4c). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.0025
|
0.1331
|
-0.2593
|
0.2614
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.3665
|
0.1651
|
0.0452
|
0.6916
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.0868
|
0.1370
|
-0.3554
|
0.1816
|
Time span
|
0.0463
|
0.1523
|
-0.2549
|
0.3460
|
Site area (log)
|
0.0122
|
0.1591
|
-0.3047
|
0.3110
|
Supplementary Table 18: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % red-listed spp. (Figure 4e). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.0028
|
0.1408
|
-0.2854
|
0.2848
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.1929
|
0.1690
|
-0.5250
|
0.1367
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.0667
|
0.1458
|
-0.3545
|
0.2200
|
Time span
|
-0.0690
|
0.1534
|
-0.3742
|
0.2347
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.1379
|
0.1652
|
-0.4625
|
0.1941
|
Supplementary Table 19: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % small-ranged spp. (Figure 4g). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.0047
|
0.1356
|
-0.2564
|
0.2710
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.2463
|
0.1684
|
-0.5731
|
0.0860
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.1852
|
0.1471
|
-0.4743
|
0.1032
|
Time span
|
-0.0521
|
0.1606
|
-0.3592
|
0.2671
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.1261
|
0.1607
|
-0.4433
|
0.1923
|
Supplementary Table 20: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and CWM-N, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.123
|
0.134
|
-0.385
|
0.142
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.376
|
0.142
|
0.102
|
0.660
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.035
|
0.124
|
-0.277
|
0.216
|
Time span
|
0.129
|
0.132
|
-0.130
|
0.389
|
Site area (log)
|
0.108
|
0.138
|
-0.168
|
0.379
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.578
|
0.315
|
-0.054
|
1.199
|
Supplementary Table 21: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % non-native spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.077
|
0.155
|
-0.385
|
0.227
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.331
|
0.170
|
-0.004
|
0.669
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.115
|
0.143
|
-0.386
|
0.174
|
Time span
|
0.022
|
0.153
|
-0.275
|
0.326
|
Site area (log)
|
0.004
|
0.163
|
-0.311
|
0.334
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.367
|
0.361
|
-0.341
|
1.079
|
Supplementary Table 22: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % red-listed spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.130
|
0.159
|
-0.177
|
0.432
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.134
|
0.174
|
-0.474
|
0.216
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.018
|
0.147
|
-0.308
|
0.274
|
Time span
|
-0.029
|
0.159
|
-0.338
|
0.288
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.130
|
0.162
|
-0.444
|
0.190
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
-0.614
|
0.367
|
-1.350
|
0.103
|
Supplementary Table 23: Summary of model testing the association between changes in herbivory and % small-ranged spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.156
|
0.154
|
-0.143
|
0.457
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.174
|
0.166
|
-0.506
|
0.146
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.127
|
0.139
|
-0.400
|
0.142
|
Time span
|
-0.012
|
0.153
|
-0.312
|
0.286
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.112
|
0.158
|
-0.422
|
0.193
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
-0.736
|
0.356
|
-1.446
|
-0.030
|
Supplementary Table 24 - 25. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 2: Shrub cover versus non-native, nitrophilous spp.
Supplementary Table 24: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in shrub cover and % non-native spp. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.0106
|
0.1369
|
-0.2834
|
0.2594
|
Shrub cover
|
-0.3696
|
0.1383
|
-0.6367
|
-0.0913
|
Time span
|
0.1261
|
0.1482
|
-0.1595
|
0.4160
|
Site area (log)
|
0.0850
|
0.1533
|
-0.2121
|
0.3874
|
Supplementary Table 25: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in shrub cover and CWM N number. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.0263
|
0.1256
|
-0.2715
|
0.2205
|
Shrub cover
|
-0.1939
|
0.1314
|
-0.4557
|
0.0590
|
Time span
|
0.2763
|
0.1409
|
-0.0126
|
0.5518
|
Site area (log)
|
0.2557
|
0.1423
|
-0.0147
|
0.5450
|
Supplementary Table 26 - 29. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 3: N-deposition and community composition.
Supplementary Table 26: Summary of the model testing the association between cumulative N-deposition and the %-change in red-listed spp. (Supplementary Figure 3a). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.00097
|
0.13410
|
-0.25931
|
0.26405
|
N-dep
|
-0.45777
|
0.21303
|
-0.88617
|
-0.05272
|
Time span
|
0.16616
|
0.19624
|
-0.21195
|
0.55649
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.07654
|
0.15470
|
-0.38173
|
0.22986
|
Supplementary Table 27: Summary of the model testing the association between cumulative N-deposition and the %-change in non-native spp. (Supplementary Figure 3c). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.0010
|
0.1307
|
-0.2593
|
0.2533
|
N-dep
|
0.5613
|
0.2041
|
0.1658
|
0.9601
|
Time span
|
-0.2072
|
0.1904
|
-0.5818
|
0.1691
|
Site area (log)
|
0.0053
|
0.1530
|
-0.2960
|
0.3019
|
Supplementary Table 28: Summary of the model testing the association between cumulative N-deposition and the %-change in small-ranged spp. (Supplementary Figure 3b). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.00341
|
0.13545
|
-0.26353
|
0.27257
|
N-dep
|
-0.37813
|
0.21241
|
-0.79709
|
0.04114
|
Time span
|
0.12171
|
0.20231
|
-0.28083
|
0.51614
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.09509
|
0.15906
|
-0.41251
|
0.21813
|
Supplementary Table 29: Summary of the model testing the association between cumulative N-deposition and the change in CWM N-number. (Supplementary Figure 3d). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.0017
|
0.1314
|
-0.2593
|
0.2582
|
N-dep
|
0.1685
|
0.2081
|
-0.2512
|
0.5776
|
Time span
|
0.1702
|
0.1936
|
-0.2068
|
0.5472
|
Site area (log)
|
0.2327
|
0.1542
|
-0.0727
|
0.5366
|
Supplementary Table 30 - 37. Model summaries for Figure 4: Interaction between herbivory and N-deposition.
Supplementary Table 30: Summary of the model testing the interactive effect between herbivore pressure and N-deposition on CWM N-number. (Figure 4b). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.14346
|
0.13834
|
-0.41861
|
0.12963
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.28525
|
0.15601
|
-0.01979
|
0.59231
|
N-dep
|
0.24089
|
0.19410
|
-0.14276
|
0.62363
|
Time span
|
0.10411
|
0.16984
|
-0.23513
|
0.44001
|
Site area (log)
|
0.12390
|
0.14429
|
-0.15784
|
0.41086
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
0.32971
|
0.16528
|
0.00489
|
0.65462
|
Supplementary Table 31: Summary of the model testing the interactive effect between herbivore pressure and N-deposition on % non-native spp. (Figure 4d). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.15823
|
0.14254
|
-0.43938
|
0.12451
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.19529
|
0.16362
|
-0.12837
|
0.51561
|
N-dep
|
0.66243
|
0.20276
|
0.26629
|
1.06086
|
Time span
|
-0.26308
|
0.17790
|
-0.61263
|
0.08861
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.07403
|
0.15048
|
-0.37599
|
0.21962
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
0.36221
|
0.17277
|
0.02477
|
0.70093
|
Supplementary Table 32: Summary of the model testing the interactive effect between herbivore pressure and N-deposition on % red- listed spp. (Figure 4f). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.16467
|
0.15405
|
-0.14038
|
0.46590
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.01358
|
0.17541
|
-0.32855
|
0.36299
|
N-dep
|
-0.60393
|
0.21945
|
-1.03893
|
-0.17028
|
Time span
|
0.19537
|
0.19105
|
-0.18431
|
0.57162
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.06133
|
0.16282
|
-0.38160
|
0.26048
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
-0.37769
|
0.18673
|
-0.74862
|
-0.00935
|
Supplementary Table 33: Summary of the model testing the interactive effect between herbivore pressure and N-deposition on % small-ranged spp. (Figure 4h). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.22165
|
0.15068
|
-0.07421
|
0.51683
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.03988
|
0.17192
|
-0.29525
|
0.38004
|
N-dep
|
-0.56607
|
0.21418
|
-0.98972
|
-0.14858
|
Time span
|
0.14544
|
0.18769
|
-0.22306
|
0.51553
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.08430
|
0.15878
|
-0.39849
|
0.22959
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
-0.50683
|
0.18215
|
-0.86508
|
-0.14563
|
Supplementary Table 34: Summary of model testing the interaction between changes in herbivory and N-deposition on CWM-N, after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.261
|
0.151
|
-0.561
|
0.046
|
N-dep
|
0.113
|
0.205
|
-0.284
|
0.528
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.234
|
0.163
|
-0.075
|
0.561
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.090
|
0.131
|
-0.351
|
0.168
|
Time span
|
0.148
|
0.174
|
-0.188
|
0.490
|
Site area (log)
|
0.142
|
0.144
|
-0.142
|
0.421
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.558
|
0.320
|
-0.084
|
1.186
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
0.329
|
0.167
|
-0.003
|
0.655
|
Supplementary Table 35: Summary of model testing the interaction between changes in herbivory and N-deposition on % non-native spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.185
|
0.163
|
-0.511
|
0.135
|
N-dep
|
0.631
|
0.222
|
0.192
|
1.068
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.158
|
0.176
|
-0.193
|
0.502
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.089
|
0.141
|
-0.366
|
0.190
|
Time span
|
-0.237
|
0.185
|
-0.601
|
0.125
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.065
|
0.154
|
-0.368
|
0.240
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.075
|
0.347
|
-0.609
|
0.756
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
0.386
|
0.182
|
0.032
|
0.748
|
Supplementary Table 36: Summary of model testing the interaction between changes in herbivory and N-deposition on % red-listed spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.230
|
0.173
|
-0.113
|
0.570
|
N-dep
|
-0.537
|
0.234
|
-0.997
|
-0.075
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.019
|
0.184
|
-0.348
|
0.378
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.034
|
0.151
|
-0.326
|
0.263
|
Time span
|
0.186
|
0.196
|
-0.200
|
0.571
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.070
|
0.162
|
-0.388
|
0.250
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
0.358
|
0.362
|
-0.359
|
1.071
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
-0.351
|
0.191
|
-0.728
|
0.025
|
Supplementary Table 37: Summary of model testing the interaction between changes in herbivory and N-deposition on % small-ranged spp., after accounting for forest management change. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.311
|
0.164
|
-0.012
|
0.632
|
N-dep
|
-0.484
|
0.225
|
-0.930
|
-0.045
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.023
|
0.174
|
-0.316
|
0.368
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.111
|
0.142
|
-0.388
|
0.165
|
Time span
|
0.154
|
0.189
|
-0.215
|
0.527
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.090
|
0.155
|
-0.396
|
0.216
|
Mgmt change:decline (delta)
|
-0.544
|
0.350
|
-1.232
|
0.139
|
Herbivore:N-dep
|
-0.447
|
0.181
|
-0.804
|
-0.092
|
Supplementary Table 38 - 39. Model summaries for Supplementary Figure 4: Differences in N-numbers.
Supplementary Table 38: Summary of the model testing for differences in N-number between threatened and non-threatened spp. (Supplementary Figure 4a). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
5.34
|
0.09
|
5.17
|
5.51
|
Threatened - Yes
|
-1.41
|
0.17
|
-1.73
|
-1.08
|
Supplementary Table 39: Summary of the model testing for differences in N-number between native and non-native species. (Supplementary Figure 4b). Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
6.52
|
0.12
|
6.29
|
6.75
|
Native - Yes
|
-1.25
|
0.10
|
-1.46
|
-1.05
|
Supplementary Table 40 - 43. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, accounting for productivity.
Supplementary Table 40: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and CWM-N, with productivity measured as AP:PET as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.000
|
0.127
|
-0.247
|
0.256
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.420
|
0.151
|
0.117
|
0.722
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.016
|
0.128
|
-0.235
|
0.269
|
Time span
|
0.173
|
0.148
|
-0.112
|
0.453
|
Site area (log)
|
0.119
|
0.146
|
-0.166
|
0.406
|
Productivity - AP:PET
|
0.032
|
0.136
|
-0.230
|
0.294
|
Supplementary Table 41: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % non-naitve spp., with productivity measured as AP:PET as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.001
|
0.134
|
-0.266
|
0.260
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.348
|
0.173
|
0.011
|
0.688
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.078
|
0.146
|
-0.379
|
0.208
|
Time span
|
0.057
|
0.160
|
-0.265
|
0.368
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.001
|
0.161
|
-0.319
|
0.315
|
Productivity - AP:PET
|
0.059
|
0.150
|
-0.228
|
0.354
|
Supplementary Table 42: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % red-listed spp., with productivity measured as AP:PET as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.005
|
0.146
|
-0.286
|
0.287
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.187
|
0.181
|
-0.547
|
0.162
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.070
|
0.159
|
-0.384
|
0.244
|
Time span
|
-0.072
|
0.167
|
-0.396
|
0.254
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.107
|
0.167
|
-0.440
|
0.215
|
Productivity - AP:PET
|
-0.037
|
0.157
|
-0.349
|
0.263
|
Supplementary Table 43: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % small-ranged spp., with productivity measured as AP:PET as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.005
|
0.143
|
-0.275
|
0.280
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.239
|
0.176
|
-0.585
|
0.102
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.182
|
0.149
|
-0.464
|
0.108
|
Time span
|
-0.010
|
0.168
|
-0.343
|
0.315
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.127
|
0.169
|
-0.469
|
0.202
|
Productivity - AP:PET
|
0.057
|
0.160
|
-0.258
|
0.376
|
Supplementary Table 44 - 47. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, accounting for tree cover
Supplementary Table 44: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and CWM-N, with tree cover as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.018
|
0.121
|
-0.252
|
0.218
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.411
|
0.143
|
0.128
|
0.702
|
Baseline herbivory
|
0.033
|
0.130
|
-0.226
|
0.279
|
Time span
|
0.163
|
0.138
|
-0.114
|
0.428
|
Site area (log)
|
0.135
|
0.142
|
-0.148
|
0.414
|
Tree cover
|
0.172
|
0.127
|
-0.084
|
0.415
|
Supplementary Table 45: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % non-native spp., with tree cover as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.005
|
0.140
|
-0.281
|
0.270
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.353
|
0.168
|
0.020
|
0.685
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.118
|
0.153
|
-0.420
|
0.180
|
Time span
|
0.030
|
0.156
|
-0.281
|
0.336
|
Site area (log)
|
0.000
|
0.162
|
-0.326
|
0.316
|
Tree cover
|
0.000
|
0.140
|
-0.271
|
0.273
|
Supplementary Table 46: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % red-listed spp., with tree cover as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.018
|
0.143
|
-0.260
|
0.297
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.207
|
0.174
|
-0.557
|
0.125
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.128
|
0.166
|
-0.461
|
0.201
|
Time span
|
-0.088
|
0.160
|
-0.406
|
0.235
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.176
|
0.169
|
-0.508
|
0.154
|
Tree cover
|
0.023
|
0.150
|
-0.282
|
0.312
|
Supplementary Table 47: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % non-native spp., with tree cover as a covariate. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.020
|
0.141
|
-0.258
|
0.296
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.241
|
0.173
|
-0.584
|
0.090
|
Baseline herbivory
|
-0.205
|
0.161
|
-0.533
|
0.122
|
Time span
|
-0.059
|
0.159
|
-0.382
|
0.254
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.137
|
0.169
|
-0.468
|
0.196
|
Tree cover
|
-0.066
|
0.146
|
-0.349
|
0.216
|
Supplementary Table 48 - 51. Model summaries for changes in herbivory versus community composition, excluding baseline herbivory.
Supplementary Table 48: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and CWM-N, excluding baseline herbivory. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.001
|
0.117
|
-0.227
|
0.231
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.430
|
0.145
|
0.142
|
0.715
|
Time span
|
0.163
|
0.134
|
-0.104
|
0.433
|
Site area (log)
|
0.114
|
0.139
|
-0.167
|
0.392
|
Supplementary Table 49: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % non-native spp., excluding baseline herbivory. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.001
|
0.133
|
-0.258
|
0.259
|
Herbivore pressure
|
0.387
|
0.162
|
0.078
|
0.715
|
Time span
|
0.036
|
0.152
|
-0.262
|
0.336
|
Site area (log)
|
0.015
|
0.156
|
-0.287
|
0.315
|
Supplementary Table 50: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % red-listed spp., excluding baseline herbivory. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
-0.003
|
0.141
|
-0.279
|
0.284
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.177
|
0.169
|
-0.508
|
0.168
|
Time span
|
-0.066
|
0.158
|
-0.374
|
0.255
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.135
|
0.167
|
-0.469
|
0.184
|
Supplementary Table 51: Summary of the model testing the association between changes in herbivore pressure and % small-ranged spp., excluding baseline herbivory. Parameter estimates, their standard error (SE) and 95% credible interval (CI). Both the response and predictor variables were scaled.
Predictor
|
Slope estimate
|
SE
|
lower 95% CI
|
upper 95% CI
|
Intercept
|
0.001
|
0.140
|
-0.278
|
0.274
|
Herbivore pressure
|
-0.193
|
0.171
|
-0.531
|
0.139
|
Time span
|
-0.062
|
0.160
|
-0.371
|
0.259
|
Site area (log)
|
-0.122
|
0.164
|
-0.448
|
0.203
|