Analysis
of Costs and Time Frame for Reducing CO2 Emissions by 70%
in the U.S. Auto and Energy Sectors by 2050
Version 4 2018-02-09, 02:44
Version 3 2017-10-13, 18:20
Version 2 2017-09-25, 13:24
Version 1 2017-09-25, 13:22
Posted on 2018-02-09 - 02:44
Using
a least-cost optimization framework, it is shown that unless emissions
reductions beyond those already in place begin at the latest by 2025
(±2 years) for the U.S. automotive sector, and by 2026 (−3
years) for the U.S. electric sector, 2050 targets to achieve necessary
within-sector preventative CO2 emissions reductions of
70% or more relative to 2010 will be infeasible. The analysis finds
no evidence to justify delaying climate action in the name of reducing
technological costs. Even without considering social and environmental
damage costs, delaying aggressive climate action does not reduce CO2 abatement costs even under the most optimistic trajectories
for improvements in fuel efficiencies, demand, and technology costs
in the U.S. auto and electric sectors. In fact, the abatement cost
for both sectors is found to increase sharply with every year of delay
beyond 2020. When further considering reasonable limits to technology
turnover, retirements, and new capacity additions, these costs would
be higher, and the feasible time frame for initiating successful climate
action on the 70% by 2050 target would be shorter, perhaps having
passed already. The analysis also reveals that optimistic business-as-usual
scenarios in the U.S. will, conservatively, release 79–108
billion metric tons of CO2. This could represent up to
13% of humanity’s remaining carbon budget through 2050.
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Supekar, Sarang D.; Skerlos, Steven J. (2017). Analysis
of Costs and Time Frame for Reducing CO2 Emissions by 70%
in the U.S. Auto and Energy Sectors by 2050. ACS Publications. Collection. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b01295
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