<b>Aļaska 2025. gada 15. augusts.</b><b>Vai mežonis brutalitātē pārspēs mežoni?</b>

<p dir="ltr">The conversation explores the geopolitical, strategic, and game-theoretical dimensions of a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025, in Alaska, where a “peace plan” for the war in Ukraine might be discussed. Central to the discussion is the concept of recognizing Russia’s control over occupied Ukrainian territories <i>de facto</i> (without legal recognition) and the idea of “land swaps.” The exchange draws on historical evidence of Russia’s consistent violation of agreements (e.g., the Minsk accords) and argues that any ceasefire along Ukraine’s extended and complex front line would be technically unworkable and politically meaningless.</p><p dir="ltr">From a game-theory perspective, the conversation frames Putin as a “cheater” with no reputational cost for breaking agreements, contrasted with Trump’s transactional “deal-making” mindset, which assumes mutual goodwill that does not exist. This asymmetry, combined with the speed of Russian decision-making versus the constraints on U.S. actions, leads to the conclusion that any such deal would favor Russia.</p><p dir="ltr">The discussion incorporates the roles and motivations of key players — Russia, the U.S. under Trump, Ukraine, the EU/NATO, and China — highlighting China’s pragmatic interest in global stability and potential to act as a brake on Russian adventurism. It also assesses the security implications for the Baltic states and Europe in the event of a weakened NATO, stressing the likelihood that Ukraine will continue fighting regardless of U.S. support, given the existential nature of the conflict.</p><p dir="ltr">The dialogue integrates analytical input from an external AI (DeepSeek), creating a multi-perspective assessment and laying the groundwork for a structured “players and motivations” map as the first step toward scenario planning.</p>