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HPFM: Open Analysis of Geomagnetic Influence on Lightning

Version 6 2025-06-11, 02:10
Version 5 2025-06-10, 23:52
Version 4 2025-06-10, 22:55
Version 3 2025-06-10, 14:55
Version 2 2025-05-29, 16:30
Version 1 2025-05-22, 17:30
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posted on 2025-06-11, 02:10 authored by ErringtonErrington

This work presents a reproducible analysis of the links between planetary lightning activity, geomagnetic storms (Kp, Ap), and climate variability (ENSO/ONI), centered on the HydroElectric Phase Feedback Model (HPFM). Using multi-year lightning observations (WWLLN), planetary geomagnetic indices, and standard climate controls, the analysis engine quantifies how large geomagnetic events modulate global and regional lightning rates—highlighting previously underappreciated feedbacks in atmospheric electricity and composition.

The package includes all Python scripts, README documentation, and guidance for adapting the workflow to other regions, time periods, or datasets. Results support the existence of a real, though moderate, geomagnetic effect on lightning, robust to controls for ENSO and other major climate drivers.

Disclaimer:
This research was conducted by an independent, self-taught contributor outside of formal academic institutions. Methods and interpretations should be considered preliminary and open for further review, correction, or extension by the community. All code and documentation are provided for transparency and reproducibility; feedback and collaboration are welcome.

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