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Under-5 Mortality Rate Estimation by Residence for 112 Countries using a Bayesian Time Series Model

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posted on 07.05.2021, 01:51 authored by Fengqing ChaoFengqing Chao, Danzhen You, Lucia Hug, Jon Pedersen, Hernando Ombao, Leontine Alkema
The poster was presented on May 6th, 2021, in the 2021 Population Association of America Annual Meeting (virtual due to COVID19).

The progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) since 1990 has been remarkable but uneven within countries between urban and rural populations. While trend U5MR estimates have been published frequently, an analysis of U5MR by urban and rural area has not been available across countries over time. In this paper, we provide annual estimates of U5MR among urban and rural residences for 112 countries from 1990 to 2018 using a Bayesian time series model and assess the corresponding uncertainty. The analyses are based on an extensive database complied from surveys (including DHS, MICS, RHS, PAPFAM, PAPCHILD), censuses, and vital registration system. We present results for selected countries and identify country-years with the highest disparities in U5MR between urban and rural areas. In most countries with estimates, rural U5MR is higher urban U5MR. However, a few countries such as Tanzania have similar urban and rural U5MR over time.