Tensions between China and Taiwan and the role of the United States

Even though Taiwan and China’s economic relationship to grow quickly, the dispute across the Strait remains in a political deadlock. Although China’s rise to prominence as a significant regional power may tip the geopolitical scales in its favor in the future, it is dissatisfied with its limited ability to control Taiwan’s perceived growing autonomy and worried about Taiwan’s recurrent difficulties that put China’s resolve to the test. Some analysts are concerned that Chinamight decide to show its resolve in a way that upsets the Strait’s delicate equilibrium.

In order to maintain the status quo, which Washington defines as the maintenance of peace and stability, both sides must agree to any unilateral action that might change it. This is the basis for US administration of cross-Strait ties. This two-fold warning indicates that neither Taiwan’s provocation-driven policies nor Beijing’s use of force will be tolerated by the US. Thus, the US’ policy of strategic uncertainty endures. China cannot rule out the potential of US intervention should it invade Taiwan, and Taiwan cannot expect that the US will always support it.