Middle Class Evolution 2000-2040 at the Subnational Level (Video)
This video shows how the global middle class grows from 2000 till 2040.
We decided to report the evolution in the most stylized manner possible with only two shadings. Green if the geographic entity has more than 60% of its population in the global middle class and above (middle+ class), grey otherwise. Disposable income in PPP$ terms is used together with local income distributions.
We use the TelluBase dataset with 2600 cities and 2400 subdivisions. Country data is too coarse to be useful.
Observations:
- The middle+ class has been growing and will continue to grow. Of the over 5,000 entities only four lost their green middle class status. A truly remarkable finding.
- The middle+ class growth is strongest in East, Southeast and South Asia together with Latin America. There may be no other commonality between BRIC countries, but they do experience strong upward middle class conversion.
- Cities lead the way. Green dots (cities) almost always show up before the corresponding subdivision turns green.
Africa is the laggard, but you will see development among African cities with a strong cluster in West Africa. Why does South Africa not convert to green quicker?
First, Gauteng does but it is small in area and thus hard to see. Second, some other entities are on the cusp of turning green but reach the 58-59% range, below the 60% cutoff. Low GDP growth and high inequality work against South Africa.
There is too much to write up. here. Enjoy the video and formulate your own insights.
What you see is truly unique.
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Music: Samon by Tea K Pea; Free Music Archive; CC BY
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