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Trend analysis of indicator time series.

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posted on 10.07.2012, 00:47 by Martin Lindegren, Vasilis Dakos, Joachim P. Gröger, Anna Gårdmark, Georgs Kornilovs, Saskia A. Otto, Christian Möllmann

Smoothed time series of Pseudocalanus acuspes and Acartia spp. based on GAMs using df = 10 (A, C) and df = 20 (B, D). Bootstrapped confidence intervals are shown by grey lines. Acceleration in the rate of change (slope) in each year are shown by statistically significant second derivatives (f ’’), where black and white dots represent major downward- and upward trends, respectively. Vertical dashed lines mark the timing of the regime shift in the late 1980s.

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