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These plots show the number of dangerous contacts (DC, top panel), infected premises (IP, middle panel) and duration of outbreak (T, bottom panel), for each of four counties: Aberdeen, Clywd, Cumbria and Devon, in simulated outbreaks of FMD.

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posted on 2012-11-01, 02:33 authored by Michael J. Tildesley, Sadie J. Ryan

Each set of simulations was run for a different method of deriving the underlying farm data: In (a) CSM, mean cow and sheep numbers on farms of that category, EQU, equal numbers of cows and sheep on every farm, RAN, spatially randomized locations, SHU, farms shuffled between locations, and TRU, the recorded data (see materials and methods for details). In (b) the different treatments are for derived land covers LC1–LC4, as described in the materials and methods section, using coarse and fine resolution land cover classification to describe potential farm land. The boxes represent the range of mean values for each of the 100 datasets used to run the model, and the whiskers show the 95% Prediction Interval (PI) for 1000 runs on each of the 100 generated datasets. NB: the methods TRU and EQU have no range of mean values.