Figure_4.tif (1.84 MB)

Predictive analysis of behavior-incidence model for the pertussis vaccine scare: predictions up until 1988 were made using data up until tfit = 1975 (a, b); 1977 (c, d), 1978 (e, f) and 1988 (g, h) for both vaccine coverage (a, c, e, g) and case notifications (b, d, f, h).

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posted on 05.04.2012, 02:03 by Chris T. Bauch, Samit Bhattacharyya

Best fitting model (blue dots), 50 realizations from PSA (red lines), vaccine coverage and disease incidence data used to fit model (tt fit; thick black lines), and data used to evaluate model predictions (t>t fit; dashed black lines) are shown.