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Increases in seasonal risk to human health.

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posted on 2012-10-04, 01:35 authored by Brian R. Amman, Serena A. Carroll, Zachary D. Reed, Tara K. Sealy, Stephen Balinandi, Robert Swanepoel, Alan Kemp, Bobbie Rae Erickson, James A. Comer, Shelley Campbell, Deborah L. Cannon, Marina L. Khristova, Patrick Atimnedi, Christopher D. Paddock, Rebekah J. Kent Crockett, Timothy D. Flietstra, Kelly L. Warfield, Robert Unfer, Edward Katongole-Mbidde, Robert Downing, Jordan W. Tappero, Sherif R. Zaki, Pierre E. Rollin, Thomas G. Ksiazek, Stuart T. Nichol, Jonathan S. Towner

Historical spillover events (colored circles on X axis) compared to predicted seasonal levels of PCR+ juveniles (sinusoidal curve). The amplitude of the curve is based on average PCR+ juveniles experimentally determined during birthing (12.4%) and breeding (2.7%) seasons. Large light green vertical rectangles represent the proposed approximate three month seasons of increased risk based on the average level of juvenile infected bats at peak times of encompassing birthing (February and August) and breeding (May and November). Large gray arrows depict the twice yearly influx of newly autonomous juvenile bats born in the prior birthing season. The influx begins at the approximate time of the juvenile's independence from their mothers.


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